Finance Applications of Game Theory

Traditional finance theory based on the assumptions of symmetric information and perfect and competitive markets has provided many important insights. These include the Modigliani and Miller Theorems, the CAPM, the Efficient Markets Hypothesis and continuous time finance. However, many empirical phenomena are difficult to reconcile with this traditional framework. Game theoretic techniques have allowed insights into a number of these. Many puzzles remain. This paper argues that recent advances in game theory concerned with higher order beliefs, informational cascades and heterogeneous prior beliefs have the potential to provide insights into some of these remaining puzzles.

Finance Applications of Game Theory

Traditional finance theory based on the assumptions of symmetric information and perfect and competitive markets has provided many important insights. These include the Modigliani and Miller Theorems, the CAPM, the Efficient Markets Hypothesis and continuous time finance. However, many empirical phenomena are difficult to reconcile with this traditional framework. Game theoretic techniques have allowed insights into a number of these. Many puzzles remain. This paper argues that recent advances in game theory concerned with higher order beliefs, informational cascades and heterogeneous prior beliefs have the potential to provide insights into some of these remaining puzzles.

Climate change adaptation strategies for Australian birds

Abstract In the first continental analysis of the effects of climate change on a faunal group, we identified that the climate space of 101 Australian terrestrial and inland water bird taxa is likely to be entirely gone by 2085, 16 marine taxa have breeding sites that are predicted to be at least 10% less productive than today, and 55 terrestrial taxa are likely to be exposed to more frequent or intense fires.  Birds confined to Cape York Peninsula, the Wet Tropics, the Top End of the Northern Territory (particularly the Tiwi Islands), the arid zone, King Island and southern South Australia (particularly Kangaroo Island) are most likely to lose climate space. There was some variation in the predictions of the 18 climate models deployed, but all predicted that the rainforest avifauna of Cape York Peninsula is likely to face the strongest challenge from climate change, particularly taxa currently confined to the Iron and McIlwraith Ranges. For marine birds, those nesting on Lord Howe and Norfolk Islands, the Great Barrier Reef and the Houtman Abrolhos are likely to face the greatest declines in local marine productivity. Changes in local marine productivity may also affect the endemic terrestrial birds of these islands, for which no climate modelling was possible. A small group of beach-nesting and saltmarsh birds may be affected by sea level rise.  Many taxa, and particularly seabirds, are potentially highly sensitive to climate change based on a set of ecological and morphological metrics. Small island taxa were most likely to be both exposed and sensitive to climate change, followed by marine and shoreline taxa. While threatened birds were more likely than non-threatened taxa to be exposed or sensitive to climate change, or both, a substantial proportion was neither. A key action that needs to be undertaken immediately is fine scale modelling of regions identified as having numerous highly exposed bird taxa, in order to identify climatic refugia within the landscape. Such refugia can then be secured and managed appropriately for the future. The most urgent ongoing action is monitoring, with support for the Atlas of Australian Birds seen as a particularly cost-effective investment. In the future, the most expensive actions will be management of refugia, and captive breeding should all other approaches to conservation in the wild fail. However, most of those for which captive breeding is recommended as a last resort are subspecies of species that are widespread, either in Australia or in New Guinea.  For in situ management, the most important actions will be those that are already important – fire management, weed and feral animal control and, for marine taxa, controls on fishing. A small number of species-specific actions are suggested, and there appears to be no urgent requirement for corridors for the maintenance of taxa likely to be threatened with extinction – those few taxa not already living in areas where there are likely to be refugia will require assistance to colonise new climate space. The cost of management over the next 50 years for persistence in the face of climate change of the 396 bird taxa that are very highly exposed, sensitive or both is estimated at $18.8 million per year –$47,700 per year for each taxon. The biggest ongoing costs are monitoring and direct species management but refugia management and captive breeding may eventually be needed, and will be much more expensive. Please cite this report as: Garnett, S, Franklin, D, Ehmke, G, VanDerWal, J, Hodgson, L, Pavey, C, Reside, A, Welbergen, J, Butchart, S, Perkins, G, Williams, S 2013 Climate change adaptation strategies for Australian birds,  National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility, Gold Coast. pp.109. In the first continental analysis of the effects of climate change on a faunal group, we identified that the climate space of 101 Australian terrestrial and inland water bird taxa is likely to be entirely gone by 2085, 16 marine taxa have breeding sites that are predicted to be at least 10% less productive than today, and 55 terrestrial taxa are likely to be exposed to more frequent or intense fires.  Birds confined to Cape York Peninsula, the Wet Tropics, the Top End of the Northern Territory (particularly the Tiwi Islands), the arid zone, King Island and southern South Australia (particularly Kangaroo Island) are most likely to lose climate space. There was some variation in the predictions of the 18 climate models deployed, but all predicted that the rainforest avifauna of Cape York Peninsula is likely to face the strongest challenge from climate change, particularly taxa currently confined to the Iron and McIlwraith Ranges. For marine birds, those nesting on Lord Howe and Norfolk Islands, the Great Barrier Reef and the Houtman Abrolhos are likely to face the greatest declines in local marine productivity. Changes in local marine productivity may also affect the endemic terrestrial birds of these islands, for which no climate modelling was possible. A small group of beach-nesting and saltmarsh birds may be affected by sea level rise.  Many taxa, and particularly seabirds, are potentially highly sensitive to climate change based on a set of ecological and morphological metrics. Small island taxa were most likely to be both exposed and sensitive to climate change, followed by marine and shoreline taxa. While threatened birds were more likely than non-threatened taxa to be exposed or sensitive to climate change, or both, a substantial proportion was neither. A key action that needs to be undertaken immediately is fine scale modelling of regions identified as having numerous highly exposed bird taxa, in order to identify climatic refugia within the landscape. Such refugia can then be secured and managed appropriately for the future. The most urgent ongoing action is monitoring, with support for the Atlas of Australian Birds seen as a particularly cost-effective investment. In the future, the most expensive actions will be management of refugia, and captive breeding should all other approaches to conservation in the wild fail. However, most of those for which captive breeding is recommended as a last resort are subspecies of species that are widespread, either in Australia or in New Guinea.  For in situ management, the most important actions will be those that are already important – fire management, weed and feral animal control and, for marine taxa, controls on fishing. A small number of species-specific actions are suggested, and there appears to be no urgent requirement for corridors for the maintenance of taxa likely to be threatened with extinction – those few taxa not already living in areas where there are likely to be refugia will require assistance to colonise new climate space. The cost of management over the next 50 years for persistence in the face of climate change of the 396 bird taxa that are very highly exposed, sensitive or both is estimated at $18.8 million per year –$47,700 per year for each taxon. The biggest ongoing costs are monitoring and direct species management but refugia management and captive breeding may eventually be needed, and will be much more expensive

EXPLORING ORGANIZATIONAL FACTORS THAT INFLUENCE RESILIENCE AND PERSISTENCE AMONG HIGH SCHOOL STUDENTS OF COLOR

This study sought to examine how schools influenced and promoted student resilience through the lens of persistence, leading to high school completion. The focus of this study was significant because there are few studies that focus on student resiliency as it relates to high school completion through the lens of persistence. Previous studies have generally identified at-risk factors for non-high school completion and either qualify or quantify the results. They have not taken into account the social and economic contexts of school and the communities and their influence on student resiliency. This study utilized a phenomenological methodology that identified the lived experiences of twenty-six 11th - grade students of color at an urban high school in Southern California that manifested resilience and persistence. Semi-structured interviews of participants drawn from a stratified variation sampling were utilized. A CRT framework was applied to examine the role of high school as a protective factor, the interactions of faculty and staff, and the perceptions of participants as it relates to school culture and climate. External factors such as supportive relationships in the familial and community context were also examined and discussed. The results of this study highlighted school climate that promotes belonging along with a collective focus on the study of student success, the role of teacher-student and counselor relationships as being pivotal to the development of resilience in students of color. The findings from this study provide examples for schools to develop supportive climates that focus on promoting and developing academic, social, and emotional resiliency in students of color with specific next step recommendations

Beauty Contests, Bubbles and Iterated Expectations in Asset Markets

In a financial market where traders are risk averse and short lived, and prices are noisy, asset prices today depend on the average expectation today of tomorrow's price. Thus (iterating this relationship) the date 1 price equals the date 1 average expectation of the date 2 average expectation of the date 3 price. This will not in general equal the date 1 average expectation of the date 3 price. We show how this failure of the law of iterated expectations for average belief can help understand the role of higher order beliefs in a fully rational asset pricing model and explain over-reaction to (noisy) public information.Beauty Contests, Bubbles and iterated expectations in Asset Markets

The Specular Moment in Goethe\u27s Willkommen und Abschied : David Wellbery\u27s Interpretation

In The Specular Moment David Wellbery highlights the structure of Goethe\u27s poem Willkommen und Abschied. His major interpretation is twofold: Firstly, the particular use of the verb sehen creates a referential structure that is the true focus of the poem and Wellbery points to the fissure of the subject from its organic unity that is expressed through the use of sehen. Secondly, Willkommen und Abschied is a poem about art and art\u27s ability to heal this rupture. Chapter one examines Wellbery\u27s interpretation of Willkommen und Abschied in his two publications entitled The Specular Moment. Chapter two is an account of previous scholarship on Willkommen und Abschied and of Wellbery\u27s relation to various theorists. Chapter three includes reactions to Wellbery\u27s interpretation, including extensive feminist criticisms. Chapter four presents the text history of Willkommen und Abschied and discusses Wellbery\u27s argument for choosing an unauthorized variant of the text that best suits his interpretation. The conclusion underscores the great contribution made by Wellbery\u27s structuralist approach while acknowledging that he does not adequately reveal the Lacanian foundations of his argument, that his introduction of the Source, an essentially religious and extra-textual concept, contradicts his intent to depend solely on the text for his interpretation, and that his justification for using an unauthorized version of the text lacks credibility

Process Thought from an Evangelical Perspective: An Appreciation and Critique

In the past, both Evangelical theologians and Process scholars have often misunderstood the perspectives and concerns of the other camp. Stephen Franklin introduces Process thought to Evangelicals, showing how Process thought addresses central Evangelical concerns. He also considers the limitations of Process thought from an Evangelical point of view. Lastly he explains to Process scholars why Evangelicals have a serious stake in the analysis of human experience, whether or not explicitly religious, and thus why Evangelicals have a natural basis for using the categories of Process thought. Mr. Franklin is Director of Graduate Programs, School of Theology and Christian Ministry at Olivet Nazarene University

The Theological Foundations of the Christian Liberal Arts in Relation to the Distinctives of the Christian Liberal Arts College/University

This article explores the implications of the doctrines of creation, sin, and redemption for the Christian liberal arts and attempts to clarify the distinctive nature of the liberal arts by examining the notions of a trade, discipline, and profession. The conclusion draws these various threads into a suggestion for improving the integration of faith and learning in Christian liberal arts institutions